Over the past five years, the U.S. smartphone industry has introduced several high-profile innovations amid a saturated consumer market. Understanding how these technologies rise and fall in public perception can be guided by the Gartner Hype Cycle framework. This model describes how new technologies generate inflated expectations, encounter disillusionment, and eventually reach productive mainstream use[1].
Using the Hype Cycle as an analytical lens, this article examines the rollout of key smartphone innovations—notably 5G networks, foldable displays, and AI-powered features—and how they have influenced consumer behavior and competitive dynamics among manufacturers (Apple, Samsung, Google). We maintain a scholarly tone while drawing on case studies and industry data to explore the interplay between hype-driven adoption cycles and the evolution of the U.S. smartphone market.
In essence, Gartner’s model delineates five key phases that new technologies traverse[1]:
Not every technology completes this journey—some fail in the trough and never achieve mainstream productivity[1]. Those that succeed eventually align with the diffusion of innovation among consumers, moving from early adopters to the early majority once the hype stabilizes into tangible utility[1].
In the late 2010s, the U.S. smartphone market entered a maturation stage. After a decade of explosive growth, smartphone penetration reached saturation: by 2021, 85% of American adults owned a smartphone, up from 81% in 2019[3]. This high adoption rate meant that most sales were replacement devices rather than first-time purchases. Indeed, global smartphone shipments plateaued and even declined around 2018–2019. In 2019, worldwide smartphone sales fell by 3.2%—the sharpest drop on record at that time[2].
Gartner analysts observed that consumers felt existing phones were “good enough” and saw little reason to upgrade so frequently[2]. Incremental improvements no longer justified a new $800+ purchase every two years. Unless a device provided significant new utility or experiences, users did not feel compelled to upgrade[2]. In other words, the smartphone as a product category was itself approaching a Plateau of Productivity—delivering high value as a mature technology, but with slowing growth as consumer expectations for truly novel improvements rose[1].
One consequence of this consumer sentiment was a noticeable lengthening of the upgrade cycle. In the U.S., the average smartphone replacement time has stretched to its longest ever. By early 2024, consumers were holding on to their phones for 3.6 years on average before trading in for a new model[9]. This is a substantial increase from the roughly 2-year cycle that was common in the early 2010s[9]. Even the introduction of 5G in 2019–2020 did not immediately reset the cycle; many users waited until the new technology proved its worth.
A survey in late 2019 found that users had reached a “threshold for new technology,” keeping their devices longer because recent models were already feature-rich and reliable[10]. In short, consumer behavior over the past five years has been characterized by upgrade conservatism—a reluctance to adopt new phones absent a compelling leap in technology. This created a challenging environment for manufacturers: to spur upgrades, they needed innovations that could break through consumer complacency and justify the hype.
The rollout of 5G (fifth-generation wireless networks) in smartphones provides a textbook example of the Gartner Hype Cycle in action. 5G was touted as a game-changer, promising ultra-fast speeds, low latency, and futuristic applications from autonomous cars to smart cities[4]. Hype accelerated in 2018 and early 2019 as carriers and device makers heavily promoted the first 5G networks and phones[4]. Gartner’s 2019 Hype Cycle report placed 5G at the Peak of Inflated Expectations, “riddled with over-enthusiasm and unrealistic projections,” fueled by a barrage of marketing[4]. Early that year, industry events featured multiple 5G phones amid breathless headlines[4]. Consumers were led to expect a near-instant revolution in mobile capabilities.
Reality, however, came more slowly. Initial 5G deployments in 2019–2020 were limited in coverage and sometimes in actual speed gains[5]. Many early 5G smartphones connected only to patchy millimeter-wave signals or had shorter battery life[5]. By 2020, as the technology entered the Trough of Disillusionment, analysts began noting that 5G “has disappointed pretty much everybody—service providers and consumers” in its early years[5].
A 2022 industry assessment concluded that for many users, 4G was still “good enough,” and 5G’s benefits remained largely unclear to the average smartphone user[5]. In Gartner’s terms, user expectations and vendor marketing had created a “huge delta” from what was actually available[4]. Carriers, after investing billions in spectrum and infrastructure, found it hard to monetize 5G quickly, and some saw slower returns than hoped[5].
Crucially, 5G did continue to advance through this period of tempered expectations. Network coverage improved significantly by 2022–2023 as carriers rolled out broader mid-band coverage. Device manufacturers refined their 5G chipsets to be more power-efficient and included them in a wider range of models[2]. Gartner had predicted in 2019 that it would take 5–10 years for 5G to reach the Plateau of Productivity, with mass adoption not expected until the mid-2020s[4].
Indeed, by 2023, 5G was finally becoming a standard feature: analysts forecast that over half of mobile phones sold in 2023 would be 5G-capable (around 56% of sales, up from just 10% in 2020)[2]. Apple’s decision to adopt 5G in the iPhone 12 (late 2020) provided a major boost to mainstream uptake—many U.S. consumers upgraded to 5G once Apple entered the fray[2]. By late 2022 and 2023, U.S. carriers advertised nationwide 5G coverage and started launching improved “Standalone 5G” networks.
At this juncture, 5G can be viewed as climbing the Slope of Enlightenment[1]. Consumers and industry stakeholders have more realistic expectations: they recognize that while 5G enables faster data and new services, it did not overnight render 4G obsolete. The early hype has given way to a gradual appreciation of 5G’s real benefits. However, the Plateau of Productivity for 5G—where its value is fully realized—may not be reached until later in the 2020s[4]. In summary, the U.S. smartphone market’s journey with 5G over five years went from exuberant hype (2018–19), through a period of disillusionment (2020–21), to a phase of pragmatic adoption (2022–23) as the technology steadily fulfills parts of its promise.
Another prominent innovation cycle in recent years is that of foldable smartphones—devices with flexible, bending displays that allow phones to fold like a book or flip phone. Foldable phone concepts generated excitement as an Innovation Trigger around 2018[8]. By 2019, foldables hit the Peak of Inflated Expectations in the consumer device press. The launch of Samsung’s Galaxy Fold (and Huawei’s Mate X) in early 2019 was accompanied by bold claims that foldable devices were “the future of smartphones,” offering the portability of a phone with the screen real estate of a tablet.
However, the initial wave of foldable phones quickly encountered the Trough of Disillusionment. The Galaxy Fold’s April 2019 debut became notorious for serious durability problems—several review units broke within days[8]. Samsung had to delay the consumer release and reinforce the device’s design. Prominent tech reviewers who had initially been intrigued by the Fold’s potential reversed course when faced with its flaws[8]. Many early adopters and journalists observed that the Fold “just wasn’t ready to hit the market,” questioning whether buyers were essentially beta-testing a prototype[8]. Such criticism underscored that the technology, while innovative, had not matured to meet consumer expectations. The exuberance around foldables cooled markedly in 2019 as these issues came to light.
In the ensuing years, foldable smartphones have progressed onto a slow Slope of Enlightenment. Samsung re-released the Galaxy Fold with improvements, then iterated with yearly models (Fold2, Fold3, and a more compact Galaxy Z Flip series). Other manufacturers introduced their own foldables, adding to the collective learning. These efforts gradually improved reliability and identified niches where foldables offer clear benefits.
Despite this progress, foldables remain far from the Plateau of Productivity in terms of mass adoption. Their market share is still very small: in 2023 foldable smartphones accounted for only about 1% of total smartphones in use[6]. Even with a roughly 60% year-over-year increase in sales, they are a niche segment. Industry forecasts suggest foldables will grow steadily but stay within single-digit percentage of the market for the next several years—one analysis projects foldables to reach around 4–5% of global smartphone shipments by 2028[7]. Several hurdles continue to limit mainstream uptake: high prices, lingering concerns about durability, and certain usability trade-offs. Notably, a recent study found that 55% of foldable owners who upgraded in 2023 returned to a traditional (non-folding) smartphone for their next purchase[6].
From a Hype Cycle perspective, foldable smartphones in 2019–2020 went through a sharp peak and trough; since then, they have been in a gradual recovery phase. Samsung, having been the first mover, capitalized on its head start and currently dominates foldable sales with over 80–90% share of the market[6]. Its strategy of annual iteration gives it a first-mover advantage—if and when foldable phones do catch on, Samsung will likely be remembered as having paved the way[8]. This aggressive innovation strategy came with risks Samsung had to absorb during the trough of disillusionment, but it also positioned the company to refine the technology while others held back.
Unlike 5G or foldables, which are tangible hardware innovations, artificial intelligence (AI) features in smartphones represent a more subtle, software-driven evolution. Still, AI in mobile devices has followed its own adoption cycle, marked by periods of intense buzz about new capabilities and times of quieter integration. Over the last five years, AI has become a ubiquitous (if often behind-the-scenes) part of high-end smartphones, influencing photography, voice interaction, personalization, and more[11].
The hype around AI in smartphones saw an early peak in the late 2010s as companies touted “AI-powered” everything in their devices. This was catalyzed by the inclusion of dedicated AI accelerators in smartphone chipsets (e.g., Apple’s A11 Bionic, Huawei’s Kirin 970). Marketing materials promised that AI would enable smarter voice assistants, pro-level automated photography, real-time translation, and adaptive user experiences. In reality, many of these AI-driven promises materialized more gradually, leading to a dip in consumer enthusiasm after the initial hype[11]. Voice assistants, for example, proved useful for basic tasks and queries but fell short of the futuristic digital butlers some imagined. Many AI features (e.g., scene-detection cameras) quickly became standard, meaning they no longer stood out as breakthroughs.
Nonetheless, AI capabilities have continued to climb a Slope of Enlightenment, as both the technology and its use cases improve. Modern phones use AI for computational photography (merging multiple exposures, recognizing scenes) and on-device tasks like predictive text and smart battery management. These enhancements are now at a stage of quiet productivity—consumers have come to expect accurate portrait mode and low-light photos, or live transcription of speech, without necessarily attributing it to AI[11]. Meanwhile, the industry is turning toward next-gen developments like running generative AI models on smartphones, which is sparking a new wave of hype that may follow the familiar cycle[11].
Figure 1 compares how major innovations—5G, foldables, and AI features—have navigated the technology adoption cycle in the U.S. smartphone market from 2018 to 2023.
Figure 1: Hype cycle trajectories of smartphone technologies (2018–2023)
The interplay between hype cycles and consumer behavior is a critical aspect of the smartphone industry’s evolution. Consumers are not passive subjects of technology waves; their responses often determine whether a hyped innovation survives its disillusionment phase.
Over the past five years, several trends in consumer behavior have emerged:
Taken together, these behaviors filter out transient fads and reward truly valuable technologies. They also reflect a more pragmatic consumer base that demands proof of functionality over marketing claims, accelerating the “Trough of Disillusionment” for products that over-promise but under-deliver.
The U.S. smartphone market is dominated by Apple, Samsung, and (to a lesser extent) Google, and each has navigated adoption cycles differently:
Overall, these different approaches balance innovation and refinement, guiding how fast a new technology navigates the hype cycle. Samsung’s early experiments reveal flaws and generate improvements; Apple’s later entry normalizes the refined version for the mainstream; Google pushes AI and software forward, often pioneering features that others adopt. This interplay collectively drives smartphone evolution toward the Plateau of Productivity.
The past five years in the U.S. smartphone industry vividly illustrate the ebb and flow of technology adoption cycles. Using the Gartner Hype Cycle as a lens, we see that major innovations—5G networks, foldable displays, AI features—have each traversed a path from inception through hype, trial by reality, and eventual maturation. These cycles have occurred against a backdrop of a maturing consumer market, where the majority of potential adopters already own smartphones and annual upgrades are no longer a given. In this environment, hype can grab attention, but sustained consumer benefits are necessary for long-term success.
5G’s journey from inflated expectations to gradual acceptance, foldables’ rocky path of iterative improvements, and AI’s migration from buzzword to everyday utility all underscore how hype cycles unfold in practice. Consumer behavior has become more discerning, rewarding technologies that deliver on promises while quickly abandoning or criticizing those that fail. Competitive dynamics among Apple, Samsung, and Google further shape the trajectory of each new feature, as each company’s strategy influences market perceptions and adoption timelines.
Looking ahead, new smartphone technologies—ranging from augmented reality to on-device generative AI—will undoubtedly spark further hype cycles. Yet the lessons of the past five years suggest that while hype can accelerate early visibility, only clear and tangible user benefits will carry a technology into the Plateau of Productivity. In this sense, the Gartner Hype Cycle will remain a valuable framework for understanding the interconnected forces of innovation, consumer response, and competitive pressures that define the U.S. smartphone landscape.
